Oil prices - where do they go from here?

A couple of MSNBC articles on oil and gas prices got me thinking a bit.

The first article details the predictions of one Matthew Simmons, described as a "best-selling author and oil-supply bear". Mr. Simmons states that, "Prices are really cheap today and they need to go a lot higher..." His prediction - $125 - $190 a barrel as soon as this winter. Compare that to today's close of $62.41 and gas prices hovering (at least in Dallas) around $2,50/gallon, and this is one ominous prediction.

However, it is a prediction, and for every ominous note, there's an upbeat one. Simmons bases his gloom on damage done by the hurricanes of earlier this summer, while the AP item quoted on MSNBC states that the Gulf facilities damaged by Katrina and Rita are recovering nicely.

Whether it's this winter, next winter, or 20 winters from now, unless things change, Simmons will eventually be right.

I don't know what the answer is. Well, I do - alternative energy sources. However, what's realistically possible in my lifetime or that of my kids? How expensive does oil need to be to prompt drilling in the ANWR, the exploitation of oil shale, more work on the Alberta oil sands, cleaner coal, more nuclear? How expensive does it need to be to make us get serious about fuel cells, wind, solar, tidal, geothermal, or even the lifted skirt and perfumed inner thigh of fusion?

What I do know is this: My current lifestyle is probably in it's dying days. We live in a huge house way out in the burbs, drive two large vehicles which we are completely dependent on, plan our lives around our schedules instead of distance or combining trips, etc. We give very little thought to energy conservation. We turn off lights, use fluorescent bulbs, turn up the thermostat, recycle, all the easy stuff, but we are living our lives basically the same way our parents did when we were growing up. If anything, we drive more, although our vehicles, though large, are definitely more efficient than those of the 70s and 80s.

Will we still live our lives this way in 20 years. Not likely. Ten years? Probably not. Five years? Well, that's where it gets interesting.

I'm an optimist. While I think it's pretty clear that the days of cheap oil are over, I like to think that oil shale, responsible drilling in sensitive areas, better oil recovery technology, and some lifestyle changes on the part of the populace will get us through the short term. I also like to think that fuel cells and fusion are not that far away.

I'd sure like to hear what anyone else who slogged through this post has to say.