Zimbabwe on the verge of big trouble?

From Reuters today: An analysis piece on the current situation in Zimbabwe. The news ain't good.

Growing up Jewish in Dallas, I had lots of friends from southern Africa - for whatever reason (similar climate, growing city w/ lots of opportunity, an even sillier local accent than their own?), many South African and Rhodesian Jews relocated to Dallas in the late 70s and through the 80s. Today, quite a few of my kids' schoolmates are 2nd or 3rd generation southern African immigrants, and many of their parents (our contemporaries) retain the distinctive accent and drive for success that characterized the first wave.

So, with that background, I do keep an eye out for news from southern Africa, and have written about the region several times here. While South Africa has had it's share of problems since majority-rule, the overall trend has been mostly positive. Not so in Zimbabwe.

Back when it was called Rhodesia and it was ruled by minority whites, this south-eastern African country was the breadbasket of the continent. Easily able to feed itself and it's neighbors, it was one of the leading exporters of food in the world. Further blessed by abundant natural resources (nothing like the treasure-house next door in South Africa, but better than most countries), Rhodesia was among the most prosperous countries in Africa and, indeed, the entire world.

The news seemed good in 1980 when, in a largely bloodless transition, the country moved to majority rule and changed it's name to Zimbabwe. The business and agricultural environment remained robust and prosperous, and it seemed like the success story would continue.

The wheels have been slow, but steady, in coming off since then. Robert Mugabe, President since 1980, has become more and more radical as time has gone by, foisting ever-more destructive economic and agricultural policies on the country. His disastrous land-reform methods (revocation of whites' right to own land and making most farmland available to any black who could grab it and hold it) were the most visible, but only average in terms of damage caused to the economy.

So, now here we are, in April of 2006 and the economic news from Zimbabwe is beyond bad - it's nearly incomprehensible. The inflation rate has topped 900%, unemployment is over 70%, an entire generation has never held a job, and the country is on the brink of... what?

Well, we'll find out in the next few weeks. Opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai has proposed mass demonstrations in the next few weeks (no dates have been announced yet, just the intent). While the government is outwardly blowing this off, internal, unnamed sources are saying they're worried.

They should be.

Robert Mugabe deserves the Nicolae Ceausescu treatment more than any world leader not in Burma. And he appears likely to get it.

Stay tuned to this one.