Opening Day - Let's try to be realistic

The Rangers open the regular season against Boston today at 2:00 at The Temple. It's a PERFECT day in old DFW - not a cloud in the sky, temp around 70 or so, not much wind (but probably about Force 8 out from the plate), couldn't be better for the start of what MIGHT be a fun baseball season.

One must remember that last year's opening day (which I was lucky enough to attend, in a box no less) was equally glorious. And we all remember how last year worked out. I don't even remember who the Rangers played. I do, however, remember the flyover by the B-52. You don't forget a flyover by a B-52. How does something that huge fly? But I digress...

I'm going to record some thoughts for posterity. We'll look back later in the season and see if any of this matters at all.

First, the opening day line-up, which looks like this:

LF - Brad Wilkerson
SS - Michael Young
1B - Mark Texeira
DH - Phil Nevin
3B - Hank Blalock
RF - Kevin Mench
CF - Laynce Nix
C - Rod Barajas
2B - Ian Kinsler

The addition of Wilkerson ought to be a plus - the guy can work pitchers and get on base.

Young and Tex are solid, with Tex finally starting to find the groove late in spring training, after a disappointing WBC.

Nevin is what, 85 years old? If he can drive his Lark out to the on-deck circle, he should be solid enough.

Blalock will start fast, as always. Check back in Aug for a true assessment of his season.

Mench and his giant melon will be good enough. I have no big hopes for him, but he'll deliver an adequate performance for a #6.

Nix should be in the minors, recovering from his two (!) shoulder surgeries. This is troubling. I have to believe the plan WAS for Dellucci to carry some of the load here, but the pitching problems (more in a moment) forced Jon Daniels' hand. We're going to have to hold our breath on Mr. Nix.

Barajas is what he is. Solid behind the plate and solid, if unspectacular, with the bat.

Kinsler has emerged as hoped. He'll be better in the field than Soriano was (faint praise if ever I've heard it), but there will be a drop-off in offense from 2B. There should be enough from elsewhere to make up for it, but it does bear watching. I still think the subtraction of Soriano's bat will be one of the biggest negatives from the off-season.

Now, the pitching, which is what it all comes down to. The rotation shapes up like this:

Kevin Millwood
Vicente Padilla
Kam Lowe
RA Dickey
John Koronka

Millwood should be the ace we've been looking for since the dawn of history. With some real run support, which he never got in Cleveland, he ought to produce. Anything short will be a surprise. This is an upgrade over Kenny Rogers without question, and cameramen on the Ranger beat are breathing a sigh of relief.

Padilla gave me a warm fuzzy as the #3. We will have to see how he does as #2. He's taking Chris Young's spot, and it's too early to tell if that's a step up.

Kam Lowe should be a #4.

RA Dickey should be in the minors working on the knuckler. If he can master it (and it looks like he will), he can be a solid rotation guy for the Rangers for years to come. The Launching Pad is a lousy place to work out the kinks, however. I hope the Rangers can afford to be patient with him.

Koronka should be in the minors as well.

The Adam Eaton injury has well and truly screwed the Rangers' plans for the rotation. I give Jon Daniels full marks for revamping his pitching staff not once, but twice this off season. Unfortunately, the Rangers are in the same division as the Angels and As, neither of whom have anything like the heartburn the Rangers do in their starting pitching.

The bullpen probably hangs on one guy: Joaquin Benoit. If he can be a competent middle guy, the bullpen sets up nicely with Otsuka handing off to Cordero.

All told, I think we are looking at an upgrade from last year's fiasco. Eaton (hopefully) coming back in July should be a boost just when the team needs it. But, the headline says "realistic", and when you look at the AL West realistically, it's hard to see how the Rangers finish higher than third.

Well, today is the one day of the season when everyone is tied and every team has a chance. So, let's play ball!