Bad days in Pakistan

With the assassination of the now-sainted Benazir Bhutto yesterday, political and security matters in Pakistan, never very stable or cheery, have become tense indeed.

I'm not going to spend any time on Ms. Bhutto's past. She had her share of controversy, and there are (or were, I guess) legitimate questions regarding her ability to unite and lead Pakistan had she won upcoming elections. None of that matters now - her death at the hands of a as-yet-unnamed jihadist is nothing short of a tragedy for Pakistan, South Asia, and the world. Its difficult to see anything positive coming out of this event.

However, it's done.

The questions I have today are:

• Who did it?
• Who will benefit?
• Who will suffer?

The first two questions are closely related. The obvious answer to both is Musharraf. Bhutto was clearly his chief rival and main opposition in the upcoming elections, so it's easy to see a short-term gain for the current President.

You can't dismiss this sort of motivation completely, but I'm not so sure.

Musharraf is hanging on by his fingernails. His whole bit is based on being able to provide internal security, and he's currently failing (badly) at it. The extremists are not in his fan club, and have tried to top him off at least twice. Any incident which contributes to the "out-of-control" impression only serves to weaken the current administration. I mean, come on - the guy has suspended the constitution, imposed emergency rule, trampled on what civil rights there are in Pakistan, muzzled the press, attempted to crush the judiciary, and he STILL can't slow down the AQ/Taliban suicide squads?

I think the average Syed and Mohammed on the street is a little disenchanted w/ Musharraf and has been for a while. Current events are not helping his standing.

The fundamentalists seem the most obvious candidates for responsibility here. Maybe they're too easy - Musharraf and the ISI have to know how easy they are for this, and, if we're going to be Machiavellian about this, well, that's just pin-the-tail-on-the-Taliban waiting to happen, isn't it?

If we try to go the less-cynical route, AQ, the Taliban, and Pakistan's home-grown fundamentalists certainly seem to fit the profile, don't they? Bhutto was a secular (relatively), progressive (again, relatively) woman from a privileged family who (most egregious of all) actually had a chance to win power democratically. There's a list of descriptors guaranteed to fry the beard off the average militant Islamic fundamentalist, no?

These guys are perfect for it.

By the way, this backfires on them if they get caught. If the Pakis can dig up some real proof that AQ, the Taliban, or the Waziristan All-Stars are involved, Musharraf is finally going to have some support for really going into the North West Frontier provinces and kicking some fundamentalist butts.

Also on the list of "who benefits" - fellow-former-PM (and fellow-alleged-crook) Nawaz Sharif. Sharif was going to get his a** kicked in the elections anyway. Now, though, he gets to take the moral high ground by boycotting the election. His standing, which likely would have been eroded significantly by a poor showing in the polls, instead takes a giant turn upwards as the new "moral center" of the opposition. I don't for one second think Sharif had anything to do with Bhutto's killing, but there's no doubt he benefits from it.

Who suffers? The average Syed and Mohammed do, as their country descends into more violence and less stability. Whether the elections are held as scheduled or not, Pakistan has taken a HUGE step backwards on the road to rule of law and stability.

Pakistani women lose big time. A role model for ambitious girls has been turned into a cautionary, perhaps dissuading, tale. The fundamentalists, who want to turn the clock back 600 years and, in the process, transform women into human livestock, become more powerful and get closer to running the show.

The world community takes it on the chin as well. Pakistan, a nuclear power, is no closer to becoming a stable state or calming influence on this most unstable of regions.The nut-jobs, who would use those nuclear weapons in their unilateral religious war against anyone and everyone who is not exactly like them, are that much closer to the levers of power. And a voice, flawed thought it may have been, which called out for reconciliation and moderation, has been violently silenced.

God, what a bummer.

Musharraf govt appears to be lying about Bhutto assassination

New video from the UK's Channel 4 seems to contradict the official Pakistani version of the Bhutto assassination.

Every bit of video available, along with numerous eyewitness quotes, agree that a gunman fired three shots at Bhutto as she stood in the sunroof of her vehicle. However, the official story is that she was not hit by the shots and was, instead, killed when her head was smashed against the interior of the vehicle when the bomb was triggered.

The Channel 4 video seem to show, pretty clearly, that she was hit by at least one of the shots. Further, there's no indication that her head hit anything inside her bomb-proof vehicle. No one else inside the vehicle was injured.

Now one has to wonder why the Musharraf government is lying about something as seemingly trivial as this. What difference does it make how, exactly, she died? If they're lying about this, what else are they lying about?

If Musharraf can be solidly linked to the killing, there's no telling what happens. Whatever it is that does happen won't be good.

A name to remember

Baitullah Mehsud

This is the pro-Taliban Pakistani militant who is the leader in the clubhouse for the coveted title (in South Waziristan, at least) "mastermind of the Bhutto assassination".

This dude has Bad News written all over him.

The current thinking is that extremists are behind this despicable act. Bhutto supporters still blame Musharraf and the ISI, but, at least according to the media, this seems unlikely. From my less-than-expert perspective, I agree - Musharraf has WAY too much to lose if he gets caught with blood on his hands.

India has some hot sports opinions

Buried on about page 9 of today's DMN is one heck of a shocking story. Apparently, India has solid proof that "state actors" on the Pakistani side were involved in planning and execution of the recent Mumbai fireworks. Further, the Indian Home Minister will be bringing said proof over with him when he visits the US next week.

India and Pakistan make me more nervous than anyone this side of Iran. Two nuclear-armed countries, one with a barely-in-control central government and a HUGE fundamentalist problem, the other allegedly the "world's largest democracy" with a huge chip on its shoulder; it's surprising they haven't gone to the mat yet.

My initial reaction to this one was along the lines of "No way the Pakis are this crazy." I mean, they couldn't have been involved in that mess, could they? Then I think back to the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, the continued support of the Taliban by the ISI, and the inability of the new government to get a grip on the western provinces, and suddenly its not so hard to believe.

I wonder what this "proof" is, and if we'll get to see it.