Big day in Israel

Israelis went to the polls today, apparently in historically low numbers, to elect a new government.

This will be the first election for Ariel Sharon's Kadima Party. Prior to Sharon's debilitating stroke, Kadima was virtually assured of victory, and probably by a large margin. Now that Sharon is out of the picture, replaced by his longtime deputy Ehud Olmert, Kadima will probably still win, but apparently by a smaller margin.

Regardless of who does win, a coalition government is a virtual certainty. Is it a left- or right-leading coalition? We shall see; the left has been in disarray for some time, but Likud (the right) has very little right now. Former PM Benjamin Netanyahu is the leading right wing candidate, and he's seen in Israel as a bit of a snake-oil salesman.

One hopes that however it shakes out, the coalition is secure enough to seek to negotiate with the Palestinians, but strong enough to pursue the unilateral course if no viable partner emerges. The situation in Israel will look very different in five years, and this government will have a lot to say about the shape it takes.

UPDATE: Kadima will win, and it looks like their coalition partners will be from the left. Olmert has some additional legitimacy, he's no dummy, and Sharon trusted him for years, so I'm hopeful. This is a CRITICAL time for Israel, and an opportunity of historic proportions - the world is going to cut Israel some slack in it's dealings with Hamas - but no major screw ups can be afforded.