Michael Slackman's piece in yesterday's NYT (available on the free online edition - thanks for that, Grey Lady) is worth a read. His point - the current hostilities in Lebanon and Israel offer huge opportunity and huge risk for all involved. And that includes the Iranians.
I don't know about you, but I tend to think of the other guys, whether it was the Commies in the bad old days, or the Iranians and Chinese today, as smarter than the nincompoops in DC. Take a look at who's been running our foreign policy since Kissinger, and you might see why I think that.
While there might be some truth to it, I keep reminding myself the other guys are not necessarily geniuses either.
Slackman writes that the Iranians have some real doubts about the outcome. If Hezbollah is destroyed (unlikely) or seriously diminished (highly likely) as a fighting force, Iran loses one of it's principal deterrents vis-a-vis Israel. Think about it: Israel might hesitate to go after Iran if a strong Hezbollah is sitting just to the north. But, with no (or much less) Hezbollah, what can Iran really do to Israel in an open conflict? Launch some missiles of questionable range and accuracy, and that's about it. They can't launch a ground attack, at least not easily, as there are two countries in the way (one of which is crawling w/ American troops, btw). Iran's Air Force and their ancient F-14s would get routed by the IAF, one of the most efficient, experienced, well-armed, and well-trained Air Forces in the world.
And maybe the US would like to see Iran's proxy armies (a.k.a. Hamas and Hezbollah) get taken down a notch or seven. Reducing Iran's ability to project force is always a good thing if you're sitting in DC, regardless of whether you buy your grandkids stuffed elephants or stuffed donkeys at Christmas.
What about the West's ability to create some distance between Syria and Iran? Perhaps Big Dorky Bashar would be more willing to listen to the US/Egyptian/Jordanian/Saudi pitch if the 500,000 Palestinian martyr-wannabes in the neighborhood were thinned out a bit?
Long and short - Arab leaders are NOTORIOUS for stepping on their own weenies when it really counts. Petty jealousies, nepotism- (and other-) related incompetence, hubris, and cowardice have all caused colossal errors in Arab and Persian perceptions and actions in recent history. Believing all of that has been righted and won't happen ever again is asking too much.
All this is not to say, "Oh, no worries. The Arabs will f%$# it up again." It's just meant to give us a bit of hope, and to remind us that perhaps it's not so dark out there.
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