Burma; Time to talk aftermath

After a week and a bit of sustained protest, followed by a violent response by the illegitimate military government, matters in Burma have settled back into a tense and fearful sort-of normalcy.

The government says they killed ten people while trying to subdue the uprising. Predictably, government mouthpieces are spouting all sorts of revisionist crap. Nyan Win, the Foreign Minister, told the UN General Assembly that "neocolonialism" had distorted news from Burma, and that "political opportunists" had co opted small protests against increased fuel prices and in support of mistreated monks.

At least they're original, right? "Neocolonialsm" is card that hardly ever gets played. Nice one, Nyan Win.

Elsewhere, UN envoy Ibrahim Gambari has apparently made a little progress. He actually got a meeting with big, scary Than Shwe in Naypyidaw (I keep referring to the new capital as Pyinmana - that was the name of the ville which previously occupied the site. Than Shwe and his evil minions have named their new insta-city Naypyidaw, or "Seat of Kings"). In addition to that somewhat remarkable accomplishment, Gambari met with Aung San Suu Kyi twice, and got to take a government sponsored field trip to Lashio to see a staged pro-government rally there.

Gambari has retreated to Singapore as of this morning. No word on whether he's going back to Burma or catching a red-eye to NYC.

Newsweek brings us word that the various rebel factions, mostly made up of ethnic minorities, are trying to unite in a political and, if necessary, a military front. These guys have been fighting the various rulers of Burma for hundreds of years, so it's difficult to see them as anything other than irritants to the junta. They do serve the purpose of providing a training ground for the Burmese Army's officer corps. I'm not sure they're worth the trouble.

Monks and monasteries are somewhat less watched at this point, although the army and it's hired thugs are still keeping the clergy under pretty tight wraps. Word is that hundreds of monks and nuns arrested over the past week will be defrocked and tossed out of the Buddha business.

And, finally, the Burmese people are more angry, frustrated, and beaten down than ever. Reading some of the quotes available on BBC, you get the sense that utter despair is settling in. The majority of the population hates their lot in life, but can't do anything about it. The army has the guns and the will to use them, the clergy (the big hope) has been beaten into submission, maybe never to recover, the world community clearly isn't going to come riding to the rescue (nor should they - beyond sanctions, sanctions, and diplomatic pressure, the world should not be sending armored divisions to the Irrawaddy Valley no matter how many bullets are flying), and there is no armed group within the country with anything like the resources required to take on the army.

The best hope, and probably the only hope, is to keep this story in the news as much as possible, to maintain pressure, to the extent pressure can be brought, on the generals, and to pray a lot. The very, very sad fact is the West has no real strategic or economic interest in Burma, and too much at stake with China to "make" them use their leverage, for any change to come from external pressures. Any change which is to come will have to come internally. And when the bad guys have the guns, internal change is hard to come by.